Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | BUF -600 EMU +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +15 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | BUF -20.6 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.4 (+14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -14.9 (+0.1) | 152.7 (+16.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -14.5 (+0.5) | 151.1 (+17.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -15.7 (-0.7) | 152.3 (+16.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -16.4 (-1.4) | 153.6 (+15.4) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | BUF 72 – 67 EMU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | EMU 90 – 77 BUF |
| Feb 21, 2024 | BUF 78 – 69 EMU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | EMU 75 – 65 BUF |
| Feb 8, 2023 | BUF 102 – 97 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-9 | 6-12 |
| Conference | 12-5 | 3-11 |
| Home | 8-3 | 5-4 |
| Away | 5-3 | 1-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 80.4 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#80) | -11.1 (#319) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#164) | -1.62 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#159) | -2.10 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#135) | 0.425 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 26.0% |
| REB / G | 44.2 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.9 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 60.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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