Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | SFA -2000 NWST +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +12 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -13.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (+9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -11.3 (+0.7) | 146.7 (+13.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -11.9 (+0.1) | 150.2 (+9.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -12.3 (-0.3) | 150.8 (+9.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -12.0 (-0.0) | 146.7 (+13.3) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | SFA 69 – 67 NWST |
| Dec 31, 2025 | SFA 74 – 64 NWST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SFA 70 – 68 NWST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NWST 57 – 54 SFA |
| Nov 14, 2023 | SFA 96 – 70 NWST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-5 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 12-3 | 9-7 |
| Home | 10-1 | 6-4 |
| Away | 6-4 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 81.0 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#192) | -12.0 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#282) | -4.31 (#343) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.78 (#312) | -6.67 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#247) | 0.385 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.5% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 25.5% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 34.6% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.1% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 40.1% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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