Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | CAL +350 UCLA -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +4 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | UCLA -9.2 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (-23.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCLA -7.8 (+3.8) | 144.3 (-26.3) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCLA -7.7 (+3.7) | 138.7 (-20.7) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -8.0 (+4.0) | 142.3 (-24.3) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -6.9 (+2.9) | 145.7 (-27.7) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2025 | CAL 80 – 72 UCLA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UCLA 61 – 60 CAL |
| Jan 7, 2024 | CAL 66 – 57 UCLA |
| Feb 19, 2023 | UCLA 78 – 43 CAL |
| Jan 28, 2022 | UCLA 81 – 57 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-20 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 13-6 |
| Home | 6-8 | 11-1 |
| Away | 1-11 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 68.4 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#169) | 11.6 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#167) | 2.62 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#168) | 3.25 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#179) | 0.612 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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