Betting Lines
| Spread | EKU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | EKU -1000 UTM +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EKU +40 | 186 | Won |
| Massey | EKU -19.7 (+20.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.8 (+26.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EKU -14.1 (+25.9) | 155.6 (+30.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EKU -14.6 (+25.4) | 154.8 (+31.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EKU -16.3 (+23.7) | 154.7 (+31.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EKU -15.9 (+24.1) | 155.7 (+30.3) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2023 | UTM 80 – 74 EKU |
| Feb 19, 2021 | EKU 89 – 72 UTM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EKU | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-7 | 8-16 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 6-14 |
| Home | 10-2 | 6-7 |
| Away | 9-4 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#148) | -15.8 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#87) | -2.41 (#324) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#119) | -3.68 (#328) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#91) | 0.355 (#336) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EKU | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 60.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.0% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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