Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -225 NCSU +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +10 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -5.4 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (+16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -6.1 (+3.9) | 145.8 (+16.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -5.2 (+4.8) | 145.4 (+16.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -5.8 (+4.2) | 146.2 (+15.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -6.3 (+3.7) | 145.7 (+16.3) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | NCSU 82 – 58 UNC |
| Feb 20, 2025 | UNC 97 – 73 NCSU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | UNC 63 – 61 NCSU |
| Mar 17, 2024 | NCSU 84 – 76 UNC |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UNC 79 – 70 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 14-11 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 9-8 |
| Home | 10-1 | 7-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 10.4 (#45) | 7.9 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.84 (#58) | 0.89 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#55) | 1.26 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#55) | 0.519 (#135) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 43.5 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 15.9 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 40.9% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 24.9% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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