Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | MER -350 VMI +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +3 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | MER -8.1 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.7 (+3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -7.8 (-4.8) | 158.3 (+4.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -6.3 (-3.3) | 155.3 (+7.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -7.4 (-4.4) | 157.2 (+5.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -7.5 (-4.5) | 157.3 (+5.7) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | MER 95 – 81 VMI |
| Jan 15, 2026 | MER 77 – 67 VMI |
| Feb 15, 2025 | VMI 80 – 71 MER |
| Jan 4, 2025 | MER 70 – 67 VMI |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MER 90 – 69 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 13-12 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 7-7 |
| Home | 9-4 | 11-1 |
| Away | 6-6 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 77.1 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#98) | -0.4 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#87) | -0.20 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.73 (#85) | -0.46 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#69) | 0.479 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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