All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
← All models

Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
29–22 on winners spread MAE 10.2 51 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
St. Bonaventure @ Duquesne -8.4 127.1 20% 65–61 ✓
Marist @ Rider +1.5 135.5 58% 76–67 ✗
Northwestern @ Penn State +5.1 148.7 71% 78–81 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Siena +2.4 133.0 66% 40–47 ✓
Jacksonville @ North Alabama +2.5 140.5 65% 54–76 ✓
Saint Mary's @ San Francisco +4.8 130.8 69% 67–63 ✗
Santa Clara @ Loyola Marymount +5.7 130.3 74% 72–69 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Northridge -12.3 146.7 16% 80–66 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Riverside +3.6 122.2 60% 63–70 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC Irvine +17.3 133.5 91% 44–67 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Virginia +11.8 136.0 82% 62–64 ✓
USC @ California -10.8 139.4 17% 76–68 ✓
Colorado @ Washington State -9.7 140.6 19% 70–59 ✓
Kansas City @ Oral Roberts +5.7 141.0 76% 58–60 ✓
South Dakota @ Western Illinois -8.4 138.1 22% 84–74 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Lipscomb +2.7 139.2 64% 56–71 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ UTEP +2.1 140.5 59% 73–55 ✗
Hawai'i @ Cal State Fullerton +2.9 148.9 66% 76–53 ✗
Missouri @ Tennessee +6.2 131.2 74% 73–64 ✗
North Dakota @ South Dakota State +12.5 148.6 88% 74–85 ✓
Denver @ North Dakota State +13.9 139.0 88% 58–84 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Murray State +8.5 138.8 80% 63–72 ✓
Long Beach State @ California Baptist +5.0 159.5 65% 75–96 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Utah Tech -11.3 141.5 15% 81–46 ✓
Pacific @ Gonzaga +18.4 155.0 90% 49–95 ✓
Pepperdine @ BYU +12.6 149.6 88% 54–65 ✓
Oregon State @ Oregon +16.1 144.1 90% 75–64 ✗
Rutgers @ Indiana +5.3 138.1 72% 74–70 ✗
Davidson @ Massachusetts +2.5 151.1 63% 69–60 ✗
James Madison @ Northeastern +5.8 138.6 77% 79–72 ✗
Norfolk State @ Coppin State -0.9 149.8 46% 77–81 ✗
Delaware @ UNC Wilmington +6.6 137.1 76% 67–62 ✗
Delaware State @ Morgan State +16.9 156.1 90% 83–99 ✓
Stony Brook @ NJIT +3.9 139.2 67% 56–44 ✗
Charleston Southern @ Gardner-Webb +15.3 140.7 89% 62–74 ✓
Lehigh @ Holy Cross +4.8 145.0 68% 82–74 ✗
Radford @ UNC Asheville +1.0 143.2 55% 68–76 ✓
Presbyterian @ High Point +4.9 128.8 68% 57–81 ✓
UAlbany @ New Hampshire +2.1 136.3 63% 83–64 ✗
Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee -8.3 134.7 19% 68–52 ✓
Towson @ Hofstra +6.0 141.2 73% 69–74 ✓
Fordham @ Rhode Island +17.1 133.1 90% 42–52 ✓
Army @ Navy +3.6 137.3 67% 87–78 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ Bradley -5.2 131.6 30% 69–56 ✓
Utah @ Washington -4.7 139.0 29% 79–83 ✗
Memphis @ East Carolina -0.4 130.1 52% 80–53 ✓
Nevada @ Wyoming -1.3 147.2 46% 88–93 ✗
Valparaiso @ Illinois State +2.4 135.1 63% 70–66 ✗
Notre Dame @ Miami +2.1 141.4 61% 73–59 ✗
Boston University @ Lafayette +10.0 149.6 83% 64–61 ✗
American University @ Loyola Maryland +3.5 142.9 61% 81–79 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.