Betting Lines
| Spread | UNA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | UNA -120 JAX +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNA +22 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | UNA -3.6 (+18.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (-12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNA -2.5 (+19.5) | 140.5 (-10.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNA -2.0 (+20.0) | 141.0 (-11.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNA -1.8 (+20.2) | 141.4 (-11.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNA -2.5 (+19.5) | 140.1 (-10.1) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | JAX 90 – 68 UNA |
| Mar 7, 2025 | UNA 78 – 63 JAX |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UNA 92 – 79 JAX |
| Jan 17, 2025 | JAX 64 – 60 UNA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | JAX 67 – 63 UNA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNA | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-11 | 11-13 |
| Conference | 7-8 | 5-9 |
| Home | 8-4 | 7-5 |
| Away | 3-6 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#281) | -8.1 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#252) | -1.55 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#259) | -1.82 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#276) | 0.413 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNA | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.59 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.9% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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