Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | COPP +160 NORF -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COPP +4 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -2.9 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (+10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -0.9 (+4.9) | 149.8 (+8.2) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -0.8 (+4.8) | 152.3 (+5.7) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -1.2 (+5.2) | 152.1 (+5.9) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -1.0 (+5.0) | 152.5 (+5.5) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | NORF 75 – 69 COPP |
| Jan 24, 2026 | NORF 103 – 76 COPP |
| Feb 22, 2025 | NORF 79 – 63 COPP |
| Jan 11, 2025 | NORF 92 – 69 COPP |
| Mar 13, 2024 | NORF 75 – 51 COPP |
Game Analysis
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