Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | MIA -138 ND +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +14 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | MIA -1.0 (-15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -2.1 (-16.1) | 141.4 (-9.4) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -1.1 (-15.1) | 138.9 (-6.9) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -0.9 (-14.9) | 141.3 (-9.3) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -1.5 (-15.5) | 140.2 (-8.2) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | MIA 81 – 69 ND |
| Feb 2, 2025 | MIA 63 – 57 ND |
| Jan 25, 2024 | MIA 73 – 61 ND |
| Dec 2, 2023 | MIA 62 – 49 ND |
| Dec 30, 2022 | MIA 76 – 65 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-17 | 11-15 |
| Conference | 4-15 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-8 | 6-5 |
| Away | 1-8 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.4 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#127) | 4.2 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#130) | 0.35 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#119) | 0.73 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#158) | 0.486 (#190) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 26.9% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 20.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.6% | 14.2% |
Game Analysis
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