Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | MUR -1200 TNTC +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +9 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -10.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -7.8 (+1.2) | 137.0 (-2.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -8.5 (+0.5) | 138.8 (-3.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -8.1 (+0.9) | 139.5 (-4.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -8.2 (+0.8) | 139.6 (-4.6) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 11, 2023 | MUR 78 – 72 TNTC |
| Jan 28, 2022 | MUR 80 – 75 TNTC |
| Jan 25, 2022 | MUR 79 – 53 TNTC |
| Feb 28, 2021 | TNTC 71 – 61 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-13 | 5-22 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 5-15 |
| Home | 9-4 | 5-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 0-16 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 76.9 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#218) | -10.7 (#317) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.58 (#294) | -2.28 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.88 (#284) | -2.74 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#284) | 0.424 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 24.0% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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