Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -12.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +5 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | MUR -12.9 (+7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.8 (+14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -12.4 (+7.4) | 144.3 (+10.7) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -12.0 (+7.0) | 141.3 (+13.7) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -12.4 (+7.4) | 142.9 (+12.1) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -13.0 (+8.0) | 141.5 (+13.5) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 11, 2023 | MUR 78 – 72 TNTC |
| Jan 25, 2022 | MUR 79 – 53 TNTC |
| Feb 28, 2021 | TNTC 71 – 61 MUR |
| Jan 24, 2021 | MUR 72 – 63 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNTC | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 31-3 |
| Conference | 7-10 | 18-0 |
| Home | 7-7 | 15-0 |
| Away | 3-12 | 11-1 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 63.4 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#250) | 12.0 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#304) | 2.67 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.89 (#292) | 3.20 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#297) | 0.597 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNTC | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 36.9% |
| FT Rate | 14.7% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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