Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | MUR -2400 TNTC +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +26 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -19.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (-9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -17.4 (+8.6) | 142.2 (-10.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -16.5 (+9.5) | 143.8 (-11.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -18.3 (+7.7) | 143.2 (-11.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -17.8 (+8.2) | 143.3 (-11.3) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 11, 2023 | MUR 78 – 72 TNTC |
| Jan 28, 2022 | MUR 80 – 75 TNTC |
| Feb 28, 2021 | TNTC 71 – 61 MUR |
| Jan 24, 2021 | MUR 72 – 63 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-3 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 18-0 | 7-10 |
| Home | 15-0 | 7-7 |
| Away | 11-1 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#29) | -3.9 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.66 (#26) | -1.59 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.19 (#29) | -1.85 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#32) | 0.419 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 15.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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