Well you know that it's a shame and a pity you were raised up in the city / And you never learned nothing about country ways "Not So Sweet Martha Lorraine" - Country Joe and the Fish
Ohio Valley Conference · Hooper Eblen Center · February 28, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread MUR -10.5 Home covered
O/U 143.5 Under
Money TNTC +450 / MUR -500
Model Predictions
Spread Total TNTC win
Actual TNTC +10 132 Won
Massey MUR -10.1 (+20.1) — —
Massey Totals — 139.9 (-7.9) —
Bradley-Terry — — 24% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 19% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ MUR -8.2 (+18.2) 139.2 (-7.2) 26% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML MUR -9.3 (+19.3) 142.8 (-10.8) 19% ✗
Baseline ML MUR -9.1 (+19.1) 144.6 (-12.6) 20% ✗
Baseline Plus ML MUR -9.1 (+19.1) 143.0 (-11.0) 24% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 11, 2023 MUR 78 – 72 TNTC
Jan 28, 2022 MUR 80 – 75 TNTC
Jan 25, 2022 MUR 79 – 53 TNTC
Jan 24, 2021 MUR 72 – 63 TNTC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TNTC MUR
Overall 5-22 13-13
Conference 5-15 10-10
Home 5-6 9-4
Away 0-16 4-8
Neutral 0-0 0-1
Last 5 2-3 3-2
Streak W2 L3
Avg Pts For 66.6 71.8
Avg Pts Against 76.9 66.5
Massey -11.4 (#325) 1.1 (#146)
Bradley-Terry -2.54 (#331) -0.96 (#252)
W. Bradley-Terry -3.08 (#328) -1.15 (#250)
RPI 0.413 (#318) 0.460 (#241)
Shooting & Four Factors TNTC MUR
FG% 43.3% 47.9%
3PT% 31.8% 37.1%
REB / G 33.5 33.7
OREB / G 9.0 8.8
AST / TO 0.87 1.21
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.1% 55.4%
TOV% 22.9% 19.2%
ORB% 26.3% 27.5%
FT Rate 18.6% 18.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 55.0% 49.8%
Opp TOV% 17.8% 20.0%
DRB% 72.3% 74.2%
Opp FT Rate 19.1% 22.3%

Game Analysis

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