Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | TNTC +450 MUR -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNTC +10 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -10.1 (+20.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -8.2 (+18.2) | 139.2 (-7.2) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -9.3 (+19.3) | 142.8 (-10.8) | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -9.1 (+19.1) | 144.6 (-12.6) | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -9.1 (+19.1) | 143.0 (-11.0) | 24% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 11, 2023 | MUR 78 – 72 TNTC |
| Jan 28, 2022 | MUR 80 – 75 TNTC |
| Jan 25, 2022 | MUR 79 – 53 TNTC |
| Jan 24, 2021 | MUR 72 – 63 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNTC | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-22 | 13-13 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 10-10 |
| Home | 5-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 0-16 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.6 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 66.5 |
| Massey | -11.4 (#325) | 1.1 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.54 (#331) | -0.96 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.08 (#328) | -1.15 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#318) | 0.460 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNTC | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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