Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | NDSU -1400 DEN +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +26 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | NDSU -17.1 (+8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (+3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -13.9 (+12.1) | 139.0 (+3.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -13.6 (+12.4) | 136.7 (+5.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -14.9 (+11.1) | 137.3 (+4.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -15.9 (+10.1) | 139.3 (+2.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | DEN 78 – 71 NDSU |
| Jan 23, 2026 | NDSU 82 – 77 DEN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NDSU 89 – 84 DEN |
| Jan 11, 2025 | NDSU 69 – 50 DEN |
| Feb 17, 2024 | DEN 77 – 71 NDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-12 | 2-19 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 1-13 |
| Home | 6-2 | 2-10 |
| Away | 5-7 | 0-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 79.8 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#166) | -14.7 (#336) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#207) | -4.60 (#346) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#219) | -6.13 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#191) | 0.321 (#345) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 80.3% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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