Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -333 GT +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +2 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -10.8 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (-13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -11.8 (-9.8) | 136.0 (-10.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -9.2 (-7.2) | 128.0 (-2.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -10.6 (-8.6) | 133.5 (-7.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -10.0 (-8.0) | 137.2 (-11.2) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | UVA 94 – 68 GT |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GT 66 – 60 UVA |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UVA 75 – 61 GT |
| Mar 10, 2024 | UVA 72 – 57 GT |
| Jan 20, 2024 | UVA 75 – 66 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 17-9 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 11-6 |
| Home | 10-1 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-3 | 4-5 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.2 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 16.7 (#10) | 8.6 (#63) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.61 (#25) | 1.61 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.83 (#7) | 2.43 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#39) | 0.530 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | GT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.7% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.71 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.6% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 77.9% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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