Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Over |
| Money | UCR -150 CSUB +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +7 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -6.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 114.8 (+18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -3.6 (+3.4) | 122.2 (+10.8) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -3.3 (+3.7) | 124.5 (+8.5) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -3.5 (+3.5) | 125.9 (+7.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -3.4 (+3.6) | 123.7 (+9.3) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | UCR 93 – 65 CSUB |
| Jan 9, 2026 | CSUB 67 – 66 UCR |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UCR 69 – 64 CSUB |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UCR 83 – 79 CSUB |
| Mar 14, 2024 | UCR 83 – 78 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-8 | 15-11 |
| Conference | 8-4 | 9-7 |
| Home | 5-4 | 9-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 65.7 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#96) | 2.1 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#209) | 0.97 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#206) | 1.35 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#244) | 0.544 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 39.9% |
| FT Rate | 12.6% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.6% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 31.3% |
Game Analysis
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