Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Over |
| Money | SF -145 SMC +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +4 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | SF -4.9 (-8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.9 (+4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -4.8 (-8.8) | 130.8 (-0.8) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -2.5 (-6.5) | 128.7 (+1.3) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -4.5 (-8.5) | 132.2 (-2.2) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SF -4.7 (-8.7) | 131.2 (-1.2) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | SMC 79 – 54 SF |
| Jan 14, 2026 | SMC 82 – 68 SF |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SF 65 – 64 SMC |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SMC 71 – 51 SF |
| Feb 21, 2024 | SMC 70 – 66 SF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-14 | 14-10 |
| Conference | 4-9 | 4-6 |
| Home | 3-5 | 9-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-3 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 62.6 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#69) | 5.8 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#97) | 1.36 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#111) | 1.59 (#87) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#73) | 0.556 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 15.5% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 79.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.1% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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