Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | ILST -110 VAL +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +4 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | ILST -2.4 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (-0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -2.4 (-6.4) | 135.1 (+0.9) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -1.4 (-5.4) | 135.0 (+1.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -1.8 (-5.8) | 139.0 (-3.0) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -2.4 (-6.4) | 135.3 (+0.7) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | ILST 86 – 64 VAL |
| Jan 8, 2026 | VAL 77 – 71 ILST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | ILST 86 – 78 VAL |
| Mar 3, 2024 | VAL 75 – 72 ILST |
| Jan 14, 2024 | VAL 59 – 50 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-18 | 10-18 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 7-11 |
| Home | 3-8 | 6-6 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#264) | -5.6 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#271) | -1.42 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#255) | -1.51 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.404 (#307) | 0.416 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 27.1% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 22.2% | 20.0% |
| FT Rate | 14.8% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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