Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | UNCW -138 DEL +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEL +5 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -7.5 (-12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (-9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -6.6 (-11.6) | 137.1 (-8.1) | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -5.3 (-10.3) | 135.3 (-6.3) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -5.9 (-10.9) | 138.3 (-9.3) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -6.0 (-11.0) | 137.7 (-8.7) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2025 | UNCW 76 – 72 DEL |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UNCW 88 – 58 DEL |
| Feb 6, 2025 | UNCW 77 – 67 DEL |
| Jan 14, 2024 | UNCW 79 – 74 DEL |
| Feb 18, 2023 | DEL 75 – 66 UNCW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | DEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-10 | 7-8 |
| Conference | 1-6 | 5-4 |
| Home | 3-4 | 6-3 |
| Away | 3-4 | 1-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 66.9 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#164) | -4.9 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#180) | -1.31 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#174) | -1.46 (#257) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#195) | 0.397 (#311) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | DEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 32.3% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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