Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | UNCW -250 DEL +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +5 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -3.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -3.2 (+1.8) | 145.4 (+7.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -3.3 (+1.7) | 147.6 (+5.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -3.3 (+1.7) | 148.4 (+4.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -2.9 (+2.1) | 148.8 (+4.2) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2025 | UNCW 76 – 72 DEL |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UNCW 88 – 58 DEL |
| Feb 6, 2025 | UNCW 77 – 67 DEL |
| Feb 18, 2023 | DEL 75 – 66 UNCW |
| Mar 9, 2022 | DEL 59 – 55 UNCW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | DEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-10 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 10-6 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#125) | 3.1 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#96) | 0.24 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#106) | 0.69 (#127) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#87) | 0.499 (#178) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | DEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 12.7% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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