Betting Lines
| Spread | DEL -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Under |
| Money | UNCW +120 DEL -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEL +4 | 114 | Lost |
| Massey | DEL -2.3 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (-23.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEL -1.3 (-2.7) | 135.8 (-21.8) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEL -1.1 (-2.9) | 137.7 (-23.7) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEL -1.2 (-2.8) | 136.6 (-22.6) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEL -0.9 (-3.1) | 136.7 (-22.7) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2025 | UNCW 76 – 72 DEL |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UNCW 88 – 58 DEL |
| Feb 6, 2025 | UNCW 77 – 67 DEL |
| Jan 14, 2024 | UNCW 79 – 74 DEL |
| Feb 18, 2023 | DEL 75 – 66 UNCW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | DEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-2 | 9-5 |
| Away | 9-5 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 68.6 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#184) | 1.4 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#108) | 0.65 (#121) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#129) | 0.64 (#123) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#112) | 0.539 (#102) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | DEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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