Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | UTU +500 GCU -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +35 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | GCU -12.1 (-22.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (-15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -11.3 (-23.7) | 141.5 (-14.5) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -10.4 (-24.6) | 137.4 (-10.4) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -11.6 (-23.4) | 140.5 (-13.5) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -11.0 (-24.0) | 141.6 (-14.6) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2025 | GCU 90 – 68 UTU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | GCU 79 – 66 UTU |
| Feb 16, 2024 | GCU 73 – 61 UTU |
| Jan 7, 2024 | GCU 75 – 65 UTU |
| Mar 4, 2023 | GCU 71 – 61 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTU | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-13 | 17-7 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 9-3 |
| Home | 5-7 | 10-3 |
| Away | 3-6 | 5-1 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.2 | 62.8 |
| Massey | -12.5 (#329) | 2.3 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.09 (#311) | -0.11 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.34 (#324) | 0.39 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.414 (#291) | 0.464 (#222) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTU | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 80.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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