Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | UNCA -150 RAD +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +8 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -1.4 (+6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -1.0 (+7.0) | 143.2 (+0.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -1.2 (+9.2) | 139.4 (+4.6) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -0.1 (+7.9) | 142.2 (+1.8) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -0.6 (+7.4) | 146.5 (-2.5) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UNCA 74 – 73 RAD |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UNCA 91 – 72 RAD |
| Feb 21, 2025 | RAD 77 – 53 UNCA |
| Jan 29, 2025 | UNCA 72 – 65 RAD |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UNCA 71 – 62 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-10 | 15-12 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 6-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 65.8 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#220) | -1.7 (#197) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#269) | -0.65 (#225) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#256) | -0.89 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#272) | 0.498 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 23.8% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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