Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | DUQ +230 SBU -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +4 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | SBU -10.7 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -8.4 (+4.4) | 127.1 (-1.1) | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -7.8 (+3.8) | 127.9 (-1.9) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -8.0 (+4.0) | 127.9 (-1.9) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -7.4 (+3.4) | 128.4 (-2.4) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | DUQ 78 – 73 SBU |
| Jan 29, 2026 | SBU 87 – 79 DUQ |
| Mar 13, 2025 | SBU 64 – 59 DUQ |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SBU 70 – 63 DUQ |
| Jan 18, 2025 | DUQ 75 – 57 SBU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-9 | 16-5 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 11-4 |
| Home | 5-1 | 8-1 |
| Away | 2-5 | 3-3 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 61.1 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#171) | 10.3 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#178) | 2.40 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#160) | 3.08 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#160) | 0.617 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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