Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | CAL +350 USC -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +8 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | USC -11.9 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (+7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -10.8 (+2.8) | 139.4 (+4.6) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -9.9 (+1.9) | 136.0 (+8.0) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -10.4 (+2.4) | 138.0 (+6.0) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -9.5 (+1.5) | 138.8 (+5.2) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2024 | CAL 71 – 66 USC |
| Feb 8, 2024 | CAL 83 – 77 USC |
| Jan 4, 2024 | USC 82 – 74 CAL |
| Feb 17, 2023 | USC 97 – 60 CAL |
| Dec 1, 2022 | USC 66 – 51 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-20 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 15-5 |
| Home | 6-8 | 13-2 |
| Away | 1-11 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 65.1 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#162) | 14.5 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#170) | 2.06 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.00 (#172) | 3.26 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#193) | 0.608 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 41.1 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 20.9% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 43.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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