I'm going to Wichita, far from this opera for evermore. "Seven Nation Army" - The White Stripes
Galen Center · November 18, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread USC -6.5 Away covered
O/U 153.5 Under
Money USC -320 / CAL +260
Model Predictions
Spread Total USC win
Actual CAL +5 137 Lost
Massey USC -7.0 (-12.0)
Massey Totals 157.6 (-20.6)
Bradley-Terry 91%
Weighted B-T 95%
Baseline Plus ML USC -7.2 (-12.2) 154.5 (-17.5) 71%
Baseline ML USC -8.2 (-13.2) 152.9 (-15.9) 76%
Baseline Tuned ML USC -6.9 (-11.9) 149.4 (-12.4) 77%
Efficiency Plus ML USC -4.8 (-9.8) 147.4 (-10.4) 65%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 8, 2024 CAL 8377 USC
Jan 4, 2024 USC 8274 CAL
Feb 17, 2023 USC 9760 CAL
Dec 1, 2022 USC 6651 CAL
Jan 30, 2022 USC 7972 CAL

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings USC CAL
Overall 17-18 14-19
Conference 7-13 6-14
Home 12-7 11-6
Away 3-7 2-11
Neutral 2-4 1-2
Last 5 3-0 2-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 76.7 75.6
Avg Pts Against 74.6 76.8
Massey 4.2 (#102) 4.0 (#104)
Bradley-Terry 1.59 (#68) 0.87 (#111)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.45 (#59) 1.42 (#101)
RPI 0.597 (#84) 0.697 (#17)
Shooting & Four Factors USC CAL
FG% 49.7% 44.1%
3PT% 30.2% 36.5%
REB / G 28.0 40.7
OREB / G 7.3 12.3
AST / TO 2.52 0.73
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.9% 50.6%
TOV% 11.5% 18.4%
ORB% 23.2% 33.9%
FT Rate 26.8% 37.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.0% 51.6%
Opp TOV% 23.6% 19.1%
DRB% 68.9% 72.6%
Opp FT Rate 37.5% 19.7%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.