Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | LIP -275 FGCU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIP +15 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | LIP -3.7 (+11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (-11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -2.7 (+12.3) | 139.2 (-12.2) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -2.8 (+12.2) | 139.6 (-12.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -3.7 (+11.3) | 138.8 (-11.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -2.8 (+12.2) | 140.6 (-13.6) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | FGCU 77 – 53 LIP |
| Jan 23, 2026 | LIP 86 – 71 FGCU |
| Jan 10, 2026 | LIP 84 – 77 FGCU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | LIP 82 – 68 FGCU |
| Jan 26, 2024 | LIP 98 – 72 FGCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIP | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-12 | 10-8 |
| Conference | 9-6 | 4-5 |
| Home | 10-4 | 7-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-2 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#252) | -6.4 (#270) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#231) | -0.35 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#223) | -0.70 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#216) | 0.447 (#251) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIP | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 22.9% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 15.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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