Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | CSUF +163 HAW -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +16 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -4.2 (+20.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (-4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -0.5 (+16.5) | 148.9 (+1.1) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -1.1 (+17.1) | 145.8 (+4.2) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -1.3 (+17.3) | 150.3 (-0.3) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -0.8 (+16.8) | 149.6 (+0.4) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | HAW 78 – 63 CSUF |
| Mar 1, 2026 | HAW 87 – 85 CSUF |
| Dec 7, 2025 | HAW 69 – 59 CSUF |
| Feb 2, 2025 | HAW 82 – 57 CSUF |
| Jan 11, 2025 | HAW 95 – 86 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-10 | 11-10 |
| Conference | 5-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 5-4 | 7-5 |
| Away | 1-5 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 70.3 |
| Massey | -6.2 (#267) | 0.8 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#230) | -0.68 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#220) | -0.50 (#201) |
| RPI | 0.406 (#302) | 0.480 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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