Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | JOES +180 GMU -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +9 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | GMU -0.6 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (-22.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -1.1 (-7.9) | 148.7 (-15.7) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -0.6 (-8.4) | 149.6 (-16.6) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -1.3 (-7.7) | 149.9 (-16.9) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -0.3 (-8.7) | 148.6 (-15.6) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | JOES 81 – 63 GMU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | GMU 60 – 52 JOES |
| Mar 15, 2025 | GMU 74 – 64 JOES |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GMU 58 – 57 JOES |
| Mar 13, 2024 | JOES 64 – 57 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-15 | 13-9 |
| Conference | 3-9 | 8-6 |
| Home | 3-3 | 7-3 |
| Away | 1-9 | 3-4 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.6 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#238) | -0.7 (#176) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#295) | 0.26 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.97 (#284) | 0.04 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#251) | 0.512 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 22.1% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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