Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | NDSU -1200 DEN +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +12 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | NDSU -18.1 (-6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -14.9 (-2.9) | 143.0 (-15.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -14.1 (-2.1) | 138.8 (-10.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -16.3 (-4.3) | 142.5 (-14.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -16.8 (-4.8) | 143.1 (-15.1) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | DEN 78 – 71 NDSU |
| Jan 23, 2026 | NDSU 82 – 77 DEN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NDSU 89 – 84 DEN |
| Jan 11, 2025 | NDSU 69 – 50 DEN |
| Feb 17, 2024 | DEN 77 – 71 NDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-12 | 2-19 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 1-13 |
| Home | 6-2 | 2-10 |
| Away | 5-7 | 0-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 79.8 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#158) | -15.0 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#205) | -4.40 (#344) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#211) | -5.84 (#343) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#167) | 0.315 (#347) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 57.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 80.3% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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