Betting Lines
| Spread | L-MD -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | AMER +120 L-MD -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +1 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | L-MD -0.1 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (-3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -2.1 (-1.1) | 142.8 (-1.8) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -1.5 (-0.5) | 138.3 (+2.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -1.2 (-0.2) | 141.8 (-0.8) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -2.7 (-1.7) | 143.1 (-2.1) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | L-MD 77 – 68 AMER |
| Dec 31, 2025 | AMER 84 – 69 L-MD |
| Feb 15, 2025 | AMER 72 – 51 L-MD |
| Jan 14, 2025 | AMER 73 – 54 L-MD |
| Feb 8, 2024 | L-MD 44 – 43 AMER |
Game Analysis
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