Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | SFA -1400 LAM +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +30 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -13.6 (+16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (+33.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -11.3 (+18.7) | 144.2 (+29.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -12.6 (+17.4) | 144.8 (+29.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -11.5 (+18.5) | 144.9 (+29.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -10.8 (+19.2) | 143.9 (+30.1) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | SFA 84 – 74 LAM |
| Jan 24, 2026 | SFA 88 – 81 LAM |
| Feb 1, 2025 | LAM 67 – 62 SFA |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SFA 72 – 63 LAM |
| Feb 19, 2022 | SFA 70 – 56 LAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-5 | 10-18 |
| Conference | 12-3 | 6-10 |
| Home | 10-1 | 5-5 |
| Away | 6-4 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#189) | -12.3 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#278) | -1.89 (#305) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.61 (#310) | -2.51 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#253) | 0.415 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.7% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 24.3% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 43.0% |
| TOV% | 25.1% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 33.5% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.7% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.5% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.5% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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