Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | NAU +200 MTST -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +5 | 111 | Lost |
| Massey | MTST -6.9 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (-27.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -6.1 (+1.1) | 135.1 (-24.1) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -5.3 (+0.3) | 133.0 (-22.0) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -5.8 (+0.8) | 133.0 (-22.0) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -6.4 (+1.4) | 134.8 (-23.8) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | MTST 76 – 65 NAU |
| Jan 4, 2026 | MTST 77 – 68 NAU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | NAU 69 – 64 MTST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | MTST 58 – 53 NAU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | NAU 76 – 71 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-16 | 13-10 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 8-6 |
| Home | 1-7 | 5-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -10.9 (#318) | -1.1 (#181) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.16 (#320) | 0.43 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.04 (#319) | 0.24 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#256) | 0.530 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 29.1 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.1% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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