Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | UNCW -188 DEL +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +7 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -8.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.5 (+10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -7.4 (-0.4) | 137.3 (+9.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -5.7 (+1.3) | 135.1 (+11.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -6.3 (+0.7) | 138.1 (+8.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -6.6 (+0.4) | 138.0 (+9.0) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2025 | UNCW 76 – 72 DEL |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UNCW 88 – 58 DEL |
| Feb 6, 2025 | UNCW 77 – 67 DEL |
| Jan 14, 2024 | UNCW 79 – 74 DEL |
| Feb 18, 2023 | DEL 75 – 66 UNCW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | DEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-10 | 7-8 |
| Conference | 1-6 | 5-4 |
| Home | 3-4 | 6-3 |
| Away | 3-4 | 1-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 66.9 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#161) | -5.2 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#182) | -1.28 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#171) | -1.50 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#193) | 0.398 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | DEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 33.8% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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