Let fury have the hour / Anger can be power. "Clampdown" - The Clash
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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90–30 on winners spread MAE 8.7 120 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Villanova @ Georgetown -9.7 142.1 18% 70–54 ✓
VCU @ Saint Louis -6.3 143.3 24% 95–85 ✓
Siena @ Saint Peter's +12.1 126.0 87% 53–75 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Rider +0.2 149.3 47% 57–61 ✓
Manhattan @ Iona +11.3 145.6 87% 63–73 ✓
Niagara @ Fairfield +5.3 146.6 70% 65–63 ✗
Canisius @ Marist +5.1 133.2 73% 55–78 ✓
Dartmouth @ Columbia +10.4 132.0 87% 63–73 ✓
Yale @ Pennsylvania -4.8 140.3 30% 76–62 ✓
Brown @ Princeton +14.9 141.7 87% 63–72 ✓
Jacksonville @ Queens University +2.0 148.3 59% 65–74 ✓
North Florida @ Kennesaw State +2.3 159.5 63% 82–81 ✗
Ohio @ Toledo +6.2 160.8 78% 83–85 ✓
New Mexico @ San Diego State +3.1 150.0 73% 70–81 ✓
Texas Tech @ Iowa State +8.1 138.9 82% 74–82 ✓
Texas A&M @ Alabama +12.4 158.0 86% 75–100 ✓
Wake Forest @ Virginia +2.1 129.5 65% 47–49 ✓
TCU @ Kansas State -1.1 145.3 48% 75–72 ✓
Penn State @ Nebraska +6.5 149.0 76% 49–68 ✓
Creighton @ Butler +0.0 155.3 48% 79–57 ✗
Richmond @ George Washington -5.8 146.6 26% 90–74 ✓
Texas @ Houston +12.5 134.5 88% 61–82 ✓
Navy @ Boston University +4.5 130.9 59% 65–74 ✓
Florida @ Georgia -1.8 158.0 43% 88–82 ✓
Saint Francis @ Fairleigh Dickinson +4.9 144.2 69% 74–93 ✓
VMI @ The Citadel +10.8 144.0 86% 51–76 ✓
Robert Morris @ Wright State +7.0 162.9 77% 71–101 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Detroit Mercy -10.1 148.8 16% 83–69 ✓
UAlbany @ UMBC +0.5 166.2 68% 75–80 ✓
Fordham @ Dayton +16.9 139.6 90% 70–78 ✓
Virginia Tech @ North Carolina +10.7 152.8 84% 81–96 ✓
Duke @ Florida State -3.4 150.1 37% 76–67 ✓
BYU @ Oklahoma State -9.4 147.1 21% 83–93 ✗
Valparaiso @ Missouri State +10.3 144.2 86% 74–82 ✓
Longwood @ Presbyterian -2.0 143.2 46% 81–73 ✓
Towson @ Hampton -11.2 133.9 16% 61–67 ✗
Northeastern @ Hofstra +7.1 140.0 79% 62–82 ✓
Delaware @ North Carolina A&T -11.2 140.8 16% 62–54 ✓
Campbell @ Drexel +10.8 135.5 85% 66–81 ✓
Army @ Holy Cross -2.2 129.1 33% 59–53 ✓
Arkansas @ Mississippi State +12.1 145.9 87% 67–71 ✓
Massachusetts @ La Salle -6.5 153.1 27% 81–82 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Lehigh +7.9 138.0 78% 70–75 ✓
Bucknell @ Colgate +11.2 135.0 87% 50–62 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Stetson +4.6 142.6 73% 60–61 ✓
Stonehill @ Le Moyne +9.4 140.1 85% 67–75 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Kent State +6.2 146.2 77% 47–85 ✓
Akron @ Buffalo -15.8 136.5 13% 73–62 ✓
Samford @ Mercer -9.0 148.0 20% 84–88 ✗
Marshall @ Coastal Carolina -2.5 152.0 44% 67–74 ✗
Wisconsin @ Iowa +1.1 152.5 54% 86–88 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Duquesne +2.7 144.4 67% 56–66 ✓
Marquette @ UConn +7.3 147.0 76% 53–81 ✓
Rice @ Tulsa +3.8 145.4 71% 82–93 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Alabama A&M +11.3 134.3 86% 57–80 ✓
Long Island University @ Merrimack +12.6 136.5 86% 68–83 ✓
Youngstown State @ Cleveland State -2.2 148.5 46% 73–81 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Oakland +21.5 147.3 91% 59–107 ✓
Vermont @ Maine -3.7 125.8 31% 68–57 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Stephen F. Austin +7.4 147.7 77% 63–62 ✗
Florida International @ Louisiana Tech +17.0 138.1 90% 68–75 ✓
New Mexico State @ Western Kentucky +10.1 145.7 84% 58–72 ✓
LSU @ South Carolina +5.2 141.8 72% 64–63 ✗
Davidson @ St. Bonaventure +5.9 136.0 73% 80–81 ✓
Bowling Green @ Eastern Michigan -4.9 146.8 34% 60–69 ✗
Ball State @ Miami (OH) +2.0 140.8 59% 59–80 ✓
Binghamton @ NJIT -0.5 135.9 46% 69–55 ✓
Texas State @ Southern Miss +2.6 131.8 63% 74–78 ✓
Kansas @ Oklahoma +1.1 137.9 57% 67–57 ✗
North Carolina Central @ Howard +0.8 142.2 55% 82–90 ✓
Miami @ Boston College +2.1 145.9 63% 77–85 ✓
Cincinnati @ UCF +0.8 136.4 54% 76–74 ✗
Stony Brook @ Monmouth +2.5 146.3 68% 61–84 ✓
Lafayette @ American University +4.5 131.9 62% 68–62 ✗
South Carolina State @ Norfolk State +5.9 137.1 73% 67–71 ✓
Delaware State @ Coppin State -6.2 131.1 19% 66–56 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Wagner +3.1 134.1 61% 63–53 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Western Carolina +7.3 139.1 79% 65–70 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Little Rock +9.4 145.2 82% 62–80 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Bryant +1.6 152.4 65% 86–77 ✗
North Dakota State @ Denver +3.7 160.7 63% 71–77 ✓
McNeese @ Nicholls -11.7 144.1 18% 74–47 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Alcorn State +2.4 145.7 60% 54–69 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC Santa Barbara +0.5 141.3 58% 71–77 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Morgan State +3.0 143.8 69% 65–70 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ South Carolina Upstate -0.4 146.9 47% 73–65 ✓
Charleston Southern @ UNC Asheville +10.5 144.1 86% 55–86 ✓
Western Illinois @ Tennessee State +0.4 131.3 52% 68–61 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ SIU Edwardsville +10.4 139.5 86% 76–80 ✓
Morehead State @ UT Martin -2.0 144.9 34% 82–88 ✗
Lindenwood @ Eastern Illinois +8.0 131.1 78% 57–72 ✓
Arkansas State @ South Alabama -1.7 155.6 43% 76–73 ✓
Louisiana @ App State +6.0 143.5 74% 73–85 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +9.8 135.7 83% 63–86 ✓
Houston Christian @ SE Louisiana +12.3 142.3 88% 78–81 ✓
Lipscomb @ Central Arkansas -8.4 153.6 18% 85–68 ✓
UC Riverside @ UC Davis +4.5 139.3 70% 67–61 ✗
Northern Colorado @ Sacramento State -5.9 143.0 21% 80–75 ✓
Idaho State @ Idaho -0.2 141.1 46% 53–55 ✗
Weber State @ Eastern Washington +3.2 146.5 64% 90–84 ✗
Illinois @ Maryland -1.2 140.3 47% 85–80 ✓
Syracuse @ Georgia Tech -1.0 146.0 48% 60–65 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alabama State +6.8 143.4 71% 80–74 ✗
UL Monroe @ Troy +10.7 146.5 86% 57–85 ✓
Lamar @ New Orleans -6.5 155.6 26% 94–72 ✓
Utah State @ Colorado State +3.9 143.1 75% 55–75 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee +20.9 145.3 91% 53–88 ✓
Baylor @ West Virginia -11.8 145.5 16% 94–81 ✓
Kentucky @ Auburn +8.5 166.3 79% 70–59 ✗
Stanford @ Washington State +8.2 146.5 82% 59–72 ✓
Grambling @ Texas Southern +4.1 132.1 65% 66–63 ✗
Dartmouth @ Cornell +17.3 138.7 90% 80–89 ✓
Harvard @ Columbia +3.0 140.7 68% 80–75 ✗
Georgia Southern @ James Madison +20.1 154.9 91% 80–87 ✓
Northwestern State @ Incarnate Word +3.2 143.6 66% 81–61 ✗
Brown @ Pennsylvania +4.6 139.3 70% 71–64 ✗
UTEP @ Middle Tennessee -2.6 134.3 40% 90–96 ✗
Louisville @ Pittsburgh +12.5 145.6 87% 59–86 ✓
Southern @ Prairie View A&M -2.7 142.2 32% 77–71 ✓
Florida A&M @ Jackson State +7.5 142.1 78% 55–77 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.