Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | USM -150 TXST +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +4 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | USM -4.2 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.0 (+23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -3.0 (+1.0) | 132.1 (+19.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -2.8 (+1.2) | 130.4 (+21.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -2.6 (+1.4) | 131.8 (+20.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -2.9 (+1.1) | 131.5 (+20.5) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | USM 81 – 77 TXST |
| Jan 17, 2026 | TXST 74 – 67 USM |
| Jan 9, 2026 | USM 80 – 70 TXST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TXST 85 – 82 USM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | USM 92 – 88 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#223) | -4.1 (#242) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#196) | -0.53 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#215) | -0.53 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#194) | 0.493 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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