Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | UNCA -800 CHSO +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +31 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -13.2 (+17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -10.8 (+20.2) | 145.9 (-4.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -11.0 (+20.0) | 142.9 (-1.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -10.5 (+20.5) | 144.1 (-3.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -11.0 (+20.0) | 145.2 (-4.2) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CHSO 92 – 75 UNCA |
| Jan 3, 2026 | CHSO 86 – 83 UNCA |
| Mar 7, 2025 | UNCA 80 – 60 CHSO |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UNCA 75 – 72 CHSO |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UNCA 69 – 61 CHSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 6-10 |
| Home | 12-2 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-7 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 64.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#161) | -9.9 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#119) | -1.53 (#309) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#129) | -1.94 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#87) | 0.439 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 34.5% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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