Everybody know I'm a motherfucking monster. "Monster" - Kanye West
Ohio Valley Conference · Kathleen and Tom Elam Center · February 17, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread MORE -3.5 Home covered
O/U 143.5 Over
Money UTM +163 / MORE -163
Model Predictions
Spread Total UTM win
Actual UTM +6 170 Won
Massey MORE -3.4 (+9.4)
Massey Totals 150.1 (+19.9)
Bradley-Terry 39%
Weighted B-T 29%
Efficiency Plus ML MORE -3.6 (+9.6) 144.9 (+25.1) 38%
Baseline Tuned ML MORE -2.1 (+8.1) 143.7 (+26.3) 41%
Baseline ML MORE -2.0 (+8.0) 144.9 (+25.1) 34%
Baseline Plus ML MORE -3.7 (+9.7) 142.4 (+27.6) 41%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 7, 2026 MORE 6155 UTM
Jan 9, 2026 UTM 7668 MORE
Mar 1, 2025 MORE 5947 UTM
Dec 20, 2024 MORE 7069 UTM
Mar 9, 2024 MORE 8478 UTM

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UTM MORE
Overall 21-11 26-9
Conference 14-4 14-4
Home 12-2 14-1
Away 9-7 9-7
Neutral 0-2 3-1
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 79.5 72.3
Avg Pts Against 77.9 66.3
Massey -3.5 (#227) 3.3 (#120)
Bradley-Terry -0.14 (#183) 0.93 (#106)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.42 (#208) 1.15 (#107)
RPI 0.501 (#170) 0.566 (#69)
Shooting & Four Factors UTM MORE
FG% 43.2% 46.2%
3PT% 35.3% 34.0%
REB / G 40.3 36.4
OREB / G 10.5 10.5
AST / TO 1.05 1.05
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.7% 53.6%
TOV% 16.1% 19.3%
ORB% 27.7% 33.3%
FT Rate 23.2% 22.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.8% 45.9%
Opp TOV% 13.5% 15.2%
DRB% 72.6% 72.7%
Opp FT Rate 17.6% 25.6%

Game Analysis

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