I remember one night the kid cut off his right arm in a bid to save a bit of power. "So It Goes" - Nick Lowe
Morehead State Eagles
70 – 69 OT
FINAL Conference
UT Martin Skyhawks
Ohio Valley Conference · Ellis T. Johnson Arena · December 20, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread MORE -5.5 Away covered
O/U 143.5 Under
Money MORE -225 / UTM +190
Model Predictions
Spread Total MORE win
Actual MORE +1 139 Won
Massey MORE -1.7 (-0.7) — —
Massey Totals — 144.3 (-5.3) —
Bradley-Terry — — 79% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 85% ✓
Baseline Plus ML MORE -1.9 (-0.9) 141.9 (-2.9) 61% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ MORE -1.6 (-0.6) 140.0 (-1.0) 68% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML MORE -2.5 (-1.5) 142.4 (-3.4) 61% ✓
Baseline ML MORE -1.6 (-0.6) 143.6 (-4.6) 57% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 7, 2026 MORE 61 – 55 UTM
Jan 9, 2026 UTM 76 – 68 MORE
Mar 1, 2025 MORE 59 – 47 UTM
Mar 9, 2024 MORE 84 – 78 UTM
Feb 17, 2024 UTM 88 – 82 MORE

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MORE UTM
Overall 15-17 14-19
Conference 10-10 9-11
Home 9-5 8-5
Away 6-10 5-12
Neutral 0-2 1-2
Last 5 2-3 0-5
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 63.7 70.2
Avg Pts Against 69.8 73.2
Massey -10.3 (#329) -7.8 (#294)
Bradley-Terry -1.26 (#285) -1.78 (#316)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.26 (#307) -3.08 (#337)
RPI 0.429 (#298) 0.401 (#326)
Shooting & Four Factors MORE UTM
FG% 41.0% 37.0%
3PT% 32.2% 25.5%
REB / G 34.8 39.0
OREB / G 10.9 13.0
AST / TO 0.77 0.68
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.5% 43.1%
TOV% 20.4% 20.6%
ORB% 30.0% 32.2%
FT Rate 28.6% 21.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.2% 52.7%
Opp TOV% 12.7% 15.7%
DRB% 72.3% 68.6%
Opp FT Rate 27.4% 23.5%

Game Analysis

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