Betting Lines
| Spread | GWEB -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | UPST +140 GWEB -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GWEB +8 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | GWEB -0.6 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GWEB -1.0 (-7.0) | 145.7 (-7.7) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GWEB -0.2 (-7.8) | 144.8 (-6.8) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GWEB -0.4 (-7.6) | 146.9 (-8.9) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GWEB -0.7 (-7.3) | 148.0 (-10.0) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | GWEB 65 – 64 UPST |
| Feb 28, 2026 | UPST 71 – 61 GWEB |
| Jan 24, 2026 | GWEB 67 – 65 UPST |
| Mar 6, 2025 | GWEB 83 – 63 UPST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GWEB 96 – 87 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 11-5 |
| Home | 6-7 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-12 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#278) | -2.3 (#208) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#282) | -0.26 (#194) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#287) | -0.43 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#278) | 0.510 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.4% | 31.7% |
Game Analysis
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