Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | SBU -350 DAV +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +1 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -7.7 (-6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (+25.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -4.7 (-3.7) | 133.7 (+27.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -6.0 (-5.0) | 136.0 (+25.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -5.9 (-4.9) | 136.0 (+25.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -5.8 (-4.8) | 136.5 (+24.5) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | DAV 68 – 63 SBU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SBU 64 – 61 DAV |
| Mar 8, 2023 | DAV 65 – 54 SBU |
| Feb 23, 2023 | DAV 74 – 61 SBU |
| Feb 2, 2022 | DAV 81 – 76 SBU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-4 | 9-7 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#76) | 3.7 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#108) | 0.61 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#105) | 0.91 (#117) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#95) | 0.534 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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