Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | CONN -333 MARQ +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +28 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -6.4 (+21.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (-12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -8.2 (+19.8) | 143.1 (-9.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -7.9 (+20.1) | 146.6 (-12.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -7.3 (+20.7) | 147.0 (-13.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -8.1 (+19.9) | 146.4 (-12.4) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | MARQ 68 – 62 CONN |
| Jan 4, 2026 | CONN 73 – 57 MARQ |
| Mar 6, 2025 | CONN 72 – 66 MARQ |
| Feb 2, 2025 | CONN 77 – 69 MARQ |
| Mar 16, 2024 | CONN 73 – 57 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37-3 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 14-6 |
| Home | 17-0 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-3 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 12-0 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W13 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 19.8 (#6) | 16.8 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.65 (#2) | 2.80 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.36 (#2) | 3.36 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.628 (#11) | 0.627 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.1% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.78 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.6% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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