You have to let that raga drop. "Rock the Casbah" - The Clash
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–19 on winners spread MAE 10.2 59 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Indiana State @ Southern Illinois -4.0 150.1 37% 69–74 ✗
Radford @ High Point +8.9 149.2 81% 74–99 ✓
Elon @ UNC Wilmington +16.1 146.1 88% 73–72 ✗
Western Michigan @ Central Michigan +4.3 135.7 73% 42–69 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Wofford +1.0 146.9 56% 58–47 ✗
Georgia State @ Old Dominion -1.2 144.8 49% 68–65 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Bellarmine -3.4 147.4 35% 75–65 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC San Diego +10.9 138.9 86% 69–76 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Portland State +5.3 142.8 74% 68–83 ✓
Fresno State @ Boise State +13.0 141.2 87% 66–90 ✓
DePaul @ Providence +19.5 141.9 90% 70–81 ✓
UT Arlington @ UT Rio Grande Valley -7.4 151.4 25% 89–70 ✓
Liberty @ Sam Houston -2.4 136.7 41% 73–83 ✗
NC State @ Clemson +8.7 146.0 79% 78–77 ✗
California @ Washington +10.2 156.1 82% 82–80 ✗
Michigan State @ Michigan -6.2 141.7 25% 73–63 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Milwaukee +0.8 152.0 55% 72–73 ✓
Yale @ Princeton +5.6 138.7 71% 62–73 ✓
South Dakota State @ Omaha +0.2 151.1 50% 85–77 ✗
South Dakota @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +11.5 145.8 86% 80–83 ✓
North Dakota @ Oral Roberts +1.8 150.5 58% 78–65 ✗
California Baptist @ Grand Canyon +13.2 138.6 87% 76–79 ✓
Long Beach State @ Cal State Northridge +0.4 156.6 54% 87–73 ✗
Austin Peay @ North Alabama +2.4 145.5 65% 87–79 ✗
Missouri @ Ole Miss +9.9 144.3 83% 76–79 ✓
Utah Valley @ Southern Utah -0.4 142.1 46% 78–75 ✓
San Francisco @ Loyola Marymount -5.5 143.8 30% 82–59 ✓
Pacific @ Gonzaga +30.3 152.1 91% 76–102 ✓
Seattle U @ Utah Tech -5.3 145.2 32% 66–65 ✓
Montana State @ Montana +6.4 146.8 77% 69–88 ✓
Arizona State @ Arizona +18.0 155.5 90% 60–105 ✓
Colorado @ USC -1.5 150.6 46% 92–89 ✓
Oregon @ Oregon State -4.8 139.6 32% 60–58 ✓
Wyoming @ San José State -0.2 142.6 48% 80–75 ✓
Santa Clara @ San Diego -3.0 150.7 41% 82–69 ✓
Portland @ Pepperdine +5.6 150.6 78% 70–91 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Irvine +13.7 140.4 87% 71–77 ✓
Nevada @ UNLV -0.2 141.0 46% 69–66 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ South Florida -1.7 145.3 45% 86–90 ✗
Wichita State @ Charlotte +8.4 134.3 80% 61–72 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Rhode Island -2.1 147.0 40% 77–67 ✓
Purdue @ Ohio State -7.8 147.1 28% 69–73 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Iona +3.8 133.2 68% 59–53 ✗
UTSA @ Temple +4.5 155.0 74% 77–83 ✓
Tulane @ East Carolina -0.5 149.0 48% 67–81 ✗
Bradley @ Northern Iowa -2.1 143.1 44% 63–74 ✗
Murray State @ Drake +9.9 142.2 85% 72–95 ✓
Belmont @ UIC +0.1 148.5 49% 75–60 ✗
Rider @ Manhattan -2.7 143.6 38% 104–62 ✓
Niagara @ Quinnipiac +6.2 151.8 75% 80–66 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Fairfield +4.7 145.7 70% 80–94 ✓
Canisius @ Siena -6.7 134.5 27% 73–64 ✓
Chattanooga @ Furman +0.3 154.7 54% 65–82 ✓
North Texas @ UAB +1.4 134.7 52% 62–71 ✓
Evansville @ Illinois State +1.8 133.3 57% 79–86 ✓
Northwestern @ Indiana +0.3 144.0 50% 76–72 ✗
Memphis @ SMU +6.8 151.2 75% 79–106 ✓
Seton Hall @ St. John's +5.2 143.6 72% 68–62 ✗
Rutgers @ Minnesota +3.3 133.0 65% 70–81 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.