Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | ECU -154 TULN +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +14 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | TULN -1.1 (+15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.0 (-7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -1.1 (+12.9) | 150.0 (-2.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -0.4 (+13.6) | 148.4 (-0.4) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TULN -0.6 (+14.6) | 146.7 (+1.3) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TULN -0.5 (+14.5) | 149.0 (-1.0) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | TULN 79 – 70 ECU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | ECU 73 – 64 TULN |
| Feb 20, 2025 | TULN 86 – 81 ECU |
| Mar 4, 2023 | TULN 81 – 78 ECU |
| Mar 2, 2023 | ECU 83 – 68 TULN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-9 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-7 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 80.6 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#170) | 4.0 (#115) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#192) | 0.33 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#186) | 0.63 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#200) | 0.500 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 19.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 34.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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