Betting Lines
| Spread | TULN -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | ECU +110 TULN -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TULN +9 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | TULN -0.6 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TULN -1.4 (-7.6) | 139.9 (+9.1) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -0.4 (-9.4) | 139.0 (+10.0) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TULN -0.7 (-8.3) | 139.3 (+9.7) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TULN -0.4 (-8.6) | 138.4 (+10.6) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2025 | ECU 73 – 64 TULN |
| Feb 20, 2025 | TULN 86 – 81 ECU |
| Feb 18, 2024 | ECU 81 – 67 TULN |
| Mar 4, 2023 | TULN 81 – 78 ECU |
| Mar 2, 2023 | ECU 83 – 68 TULN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-10 | 10-8 |
| Away | 4-8 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 75.7 |
| Massey | -9.9 (#307) | -5.3 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#267) | 0.40 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#288) | -0.06 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#211) | 0.522 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 25.2% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.0% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 37.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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