Don't talk to me about your big, big heroes "Kelly's Heroes" - Black Grape
Atlantic Sun Conference · Freedom Hall (KY) · February 18, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread EKU -6.5 Away covered
O/U 145.5 Under
Money BELL +250 / EKU -250
Model Predictions
Spread Total BELL win
Actual EKU +10 140 Lost
Massey EKU -3.3 (-6.7) — —
Massey Totals — 144.7 (-4.7) —
Bradley-Terry — — 26% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 24% ✓
Baseline Plus ML EKU -3.1 (-6.9) 147.9 (-7.9) 41% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ EKU -4.1 (-5.9) 146.6 (-6.6) 38% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML EKU -2.9 (-7.1) 145.3 (-5.3) 35% ✓
Baseline ML EKU -3.4 (-6.6) 147.4 (-7.4) 35% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 22, 2026 EKU 95 – 92 BELL
Jan 18, 2026 EKU 89 – 69 BELL
Feb 20, 2025 BELL 80 – 74 EKU
Jan 19, 2025 EKU 72 – 69 BELL
Jan 21, 2024 EKU 82 – 70 BELL

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BELL EKU
Overall 8-23 17-14
Conference 4-12 12-4
Home 6-7 13-4
Away 2-16 4-10
Neutral 0-0 0-0
Last 5 2-3 3-2
Streak L2 L3
Avg Pts For 67.5 76.5
Avg Pts Against 76.8 77.4
Massey -9.5 (#316) -2.8 (#215)
Bradley-Terry -1.95 (#329) -0.26 (#198)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.35 (#328) -0.49 (#214)
RPI 0.410 (#326) 0.494 (#179)
Shooting & Four Factors BELL EKU
FG% 42.4% 44.5%
3PT% 33.9% 36.3%
REB / G 30.9 38.5
OREB / G 7.7 12.2
AST / TO 1.25 1.17
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.7% 50.8%
TOV% 15.3% 16.5%
ORB% 22.3% 32.6%
FT Rate 16.1% 21.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.2% 50.2%
Opp TOV% 14.6% 14.3%
DRB% 69.9% 68.6%
Opp FT Rate 22.7% 21.8%

Game Analysis

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