Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
Atlantic Sun Conference · Baptist Health Arena · January 21, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread EKU -10.5 Home covered
O/U 139.5 Over
Money EKU -700 / BELL +600
Model Predictions
Spread Total EKU win
Actual EKU +12 152 Won
Massey EKU -8.9 (+3.1) — —
Massey Totals — 139.6 (+12.4) —
Bradley-Terry — — 92% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 92% ✓
Baseline Plus ML EKU -7.6 (+4.4) 143.3 (+8.7) 78% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ EKU -8.5 (+3.5) 142.5 (+9.5) 82% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML EKU -7.1 (+4.9) 141.5 (+10.5) 79% ✓
Baseline ML EKU -7.1 (+4.9) 141.9 (+10.1) 78% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 22, 2026 EKU 95 – 92 BELL
Jan 18, 2026 EKU 89 – 69 BELL
Feb 20, 2025 BELL 80 – 74 EKU
Jan 19, 2025 EKU 72 – 69 BELL
Feb 18, 2024 EKU 75 – 65 BELL

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings EKU BELL
Overall 17-14 8-23
Conference 12-4 4-12
Home 13-4 6-7
Away 4-10 2-16
Neutral 0-0 0-0
Last 5 4-1 0-5
Streak L3 L2
Avg Pts For 76.5 67.5
Avg Pts Against 77.4 76.8
Massey -3.6 (#232) -8.8 (#311)
Bradley-Terry -0.78 (#252) -2.56 (#348)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.02 (#253) -2.69 (#333)
RPI 0.470 (#229) 0.413 (#316)
Shooting & Four Factors EKU BELL
FG% 41.6% 40.9%
3PT% 33.4% 32.8%
REB / G 40.0 30.1
OREB / G 12.7 7.5
AST / TO 1.04 1.12
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.6% 47.1%
TOV% 17.0% 16.3%
ORB% 31.8% 21.6%
FT Rate 19.5% 16.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.7% 53.8%
Opp TOV% 14.1% 15.4%
DRB% 70.5% 67.6%
Opp FT Rate 21.7% 21.6%

Game Analysis

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