Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | WOF +110 UNCG -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WOF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +11 | 105 | Lost |
| Massey | WOF -0.9 (-11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (-44.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WOF -0.1 (-11.1) | 143.9 (-38.9) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WOF -1.2 (-12.2) | 146.1 (-41.1) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WOF -1.0 (-12.0) | 146.9 (-41.9) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WOF -1.2 (-12.2) | 147.4 (-42.4) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UNCG 75 – 72 WOF |
| Feb 14, 2026 | UNCG 99 – 89 WOF |
| Jan 7, 2026 | WOF 97 – 85 UNCG |
| Feb 1, 2025 | WOF 74 – 62 UNCG |
| Jan 1, 2025 | UNCG 68 – 66 WOF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WOF | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#189) | 1.0 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#149) | 0.92 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#164) | 0.84 (#122) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#132) | 0.537 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WOF | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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