Betting Lines
| Spread | WOF -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | WOF -360 UNCG +285 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WOF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WOF +12 | 182 | Won |
| Massey | WOF -9.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (+28.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WOF -7.7 (+4.3) | 148.7 (+33.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | WOF -7.7 (+4.3) | 147.4 (+34.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | WOF -6.8 (+5.2) | 145.8 (+36.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WOF -6.9 (+5.1) | 148.5 (+33.5) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UNCG 75 – 72 WOF |
| Feb 14, 2026 | UNCG 99 – 89 WOF |
| Feb 1, 2025 | WOF 74 – 62 UNCG |
| Jan 1, 2025 | UNCG 68 – 66 WOF |
| Feb 18, 2024 | UNCG 58 – 47 WOF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WOF | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 9-7 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.4 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.6 | 81.9 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#222) | -8.8 (#297) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#166) | -1.46 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#191) | -1.94 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#195) | 0.424 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WOF | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 32.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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